2008 Football Defense: Volume 1

2007 was an interesting year for the Horns in terms of defense. By "interesting" I mean the kind of interesting a professor uses when you answer a posed question totally wrong, but he/she doesn't want to hurt your feeling so replies with "That's a very interesting point, but not quite what I was looking for." Of course it would be foolish to say the Horns totally missed the point as far as defense goes in '07, but there are certainly areas they absolutely must improve in if they want to be relevant in the Big 12 next year.

The Bad Guys' Offense

In '08 the conference foes we will be losing are Kansas State, Iowa State, and Nebraska. Northerners added to the schedule for next year are Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado. Assuming that all the new players signed in the Big 12 will have little or no impact* on the existing team and that all major player losses are at least kind of compensated for, the BCS final ranking from last season pretty much sums up how much stronger the teams the Horns will face next year will be. Kansas State, Iowa State, and Nebraska all ended the season unranked in every top 25 poll and had a combined record of  13-23. Missouri, Kansas, and Colorado ended up ranked 6th, 8th, and unranked, respectively, with an incredible combined record of 30-10. We literally traded the bottom of the Big 12 North for the top based on last year's performances. Other noticeable additions to our schedule 

*Colorado signed the infamous Darrell Scott, who in my opinion is the only new player that will make a major impact on the Big 12 next year. 

Pass Defense

Everyone who has ever even walked by DKR or posted a comment on any college football blog knows that "teh horns pass d3fense like totally suckz!!1!" Although there are a few reasons as to why the pass defense hasn't been what it should be (ranked 67th in yards/pass attempt with 7.0,  109th in passing yards/game with 278 , 112th in passes attempted with 517), it is safe to say it wasn't stellar. You might say "we play Tech and they attempt like 6.022x10^23 passes per game, so that's why our average attempts per game is so high." Not true, the Horns rank 10th in the Big 12 in attempts/game, barely edging out the defensive heavyweight Baylor, and squeaking ahead of them by just over 1 passing  yard/game allowed. The fact that everyone wants to throw against the Horns tells me one thing: every team Texas faced last year knew we were far better at stopping the run than the pass. Here is a graph of how prolific the offenses the Horns face next year are at getting the ball to their receivers against the national average, and our offense for comparison's sake:

Not surprisingly, Tech on average passed for the most yards per game (it is their entire offense after all). The graph does show that except for Arkansas and Texas A&M, every single team on the schedule passed more than the national average. Except for Arkansas and Texas A&M, every team on our schedule runs the pass-heavy spread offense. It should be noted that Florida Atlantic only played one ranked team, but still managed 309 yards, averaging 8.1 yards/attempt. Essentially, Texas is a team that struggles to stop the pass in a conference that absolutely loves to throw the ball. All these numbers prove one thing: pass defense is going to be extremely important for the 2008 Longhorn defense.

Rush Defense (nice things!)

The 2007 Longhorn defense was much happier when the ball stayed on the ground. The Horns were ranked 6th nationally in rushing yards allowed on the ground with 93.38 yards/game, and 7th in rushing yards per attempt with 2.86 yards/attempt. Here's a graph of how well our '08 opponents ran the ball on average last year.

Six of the teams Texas faces next year were below the national average, two of which apparently only ran because they didn't want to feel dumb for completely wasting scholarships on running backs. Arkansas was actually ranked fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game, the reason for which just ran a 4.33 40 at the NFL combine. Oklahoma State also lost a mutant athlete in running back Dantrell Savage to the NFL draft, so their rushing attack may not be as powerful in '08. Based on last season, Texas will be facing a great deal of teams that don't run well with a defense that has been very successful at stopping the run. The upshot: the 2008 Longhorn defense will be best served if improving pass defense is their main goal.

NOTE: all the statistical information in this post came from cfbstats.com, an awesome site for anything to do with stats in college football.